Pandemics and Trade in the 21st Century: Evidence from five Pre-Covid Pandemics
نویسندگان
چکیده
Early evidence suggests that COVID-19 caused a sharp decrease in international trade and widening of current account imbalances. This paper shows (qualitatively) similar responses have characterized the effects previous pandemics. Using data from sample 170 countries, we find pandemic shock is typically followed by sizable output volumes, but an uneven response: balances improve developed (or surplus) economies deteriorate developing deficit) ones. We also explore potential mechanisms for this asymmetry, our pointing to national saving business cycle phase as main reasons behind divergent dynamic responses.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Open Economies Review
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['1573-708X', '0923-7992']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-022-09687-1